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Macroscopical economy stabilizes the inflection point that coming down 7 years i

From;  Author:Stand originally

Since 2003, chinese economy already maintained the growth of 10% above 4 years continuously. In fixed assets investment fast growth is driven, epicycle economy is outspread period had accumulated greater overproduction ability, this year since second half of the year the abidance of main economic norms fall after a rise lets a lot of scholars make judgement: Chinese economy is being entered adjust period.

Judging the basis that Chinese economy adjusts is, industry will increase value and increase rate of fixed assets investment to begin to enter October " yellow light division " : Industry will increase a value to increase fast fall after a rise to 14.7% October, become December 2004 since the portion new low (do not include this year 1, Feburary) ; The accumulative total of fixed assets investment after season of before this year 10 menstruation is adjusted is added fast arrive by the 31.3% fall after a rise of 1-6 month 28.3% . External economy also is in produce corresponding change, this year after 2 quarters, american economy is apparent decelerate, global economy put delay to had become the consensus of economics bound 2007, this certainly will causes my abroad to need farther callback, its and home invest the synchronous fall after a rise of demand, can you deny make Chinese economy by adjust and receive a big inflection point? Does the key of next macroscopical adjusting control where?

On November 30, to sit a meeting of the Political Bureau of Central Committee of Communist Party of China, analyse job of economy of next year of current economic situation, research. Before this, the Central Committee of Communist Party of China is in in Nanhai holds a party alien person informal discussion, hu Jintao points out, it is very important to do economy of good next year to work, want to continue to strengthen and improve macroscopical adjusting control, those who carry macroscopical economic policy is successional with stability, wen Jiabao is special also remind, want to maintain economy to grow more quickly smoothly, prevent to appear big rise and fall. Want to achieve these goals, need excellent adjusting control skill undoubtedly, realize the policy choice of these targets, will become the near future the key of conference of central economy job.

Turn one's head 2006, look into 2007. We are in this period special invited Chinese macroeconomics to meet director of institute of economy of secretary-general Wang Jian, countryman Fan Gang, macroscopical economic situation and adjusting control policy undertook an analysis. It is to be 21 centuries Beijing round-table the 113rd period.

Wang Jian: Talk about the inflection point that 2007 is Chinese economy again

I am by 2003 ever had said, 2007 is growth of Chinese epicycle economy by the inflection point that fill and declines, the basis of judgement is epicycle the investment cycle that gives priority to body in order to weigh chemical course of study is 5 years about, what because investment is epicycle,grow a climax is main help motive force, because this should invest periodic past, when investment demand begins fall after a rise, can one yields the height comes, this yields the income with height old to be being pulled with each passing day at China photograph allocates difference, will appear more obvious overproduction question, economy can turn into trough from the height. This is a typical market cycle, it is one each since founding a state, Chinese economy moves in the periodic type that never has encountered, also be China transfers from system of traditional planned economy after market economic system, the change of the periodic and fluctuant type that inevitable meeting produces.
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